San Jose State tops New Mexico in New Mexico Bowl
NCAA Football Betting Lines
12/24/2006 - Albuquerque, NM (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Tafralis threw three touchdown passes to lead San Jose State to a 20-12 victory over New Mexico in the inaugural New Mexico Bowl at University Stadium.
Tafralis completed 11-of-18 passes for 209 yards and James Jones finished with six catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns for the Spartans (9-4), who won their first bowl game since 1990 when the squad crushed Central Michigan by a final of 48-24 in the California Bowl.
John Broussard added four catches for 106 yards and a touchdown in the victory.
Rodney Ferguson rushed for 102 yards for the Lobos (6-7), who have lost their last five bowl games, with their most recent setback before this contest coming in the 2004 Emerald Bowl against Navy. Ferguson also added eight catches for 78 yards.
New Mexico quarterback Chris Nelson completed 17-of-26 passes for 188 yards and a touchdown in the loss.
After a scoreless opening quarter, San Jose opened the scoring on the first play of the second quarter after Tafralis connected with Broussard on a 76- yard catch-and-run touchdown over the middle to give the Spartans a 7-0 lead.
On the ensuing kickoff, DeAndre Wright ripped off a return of 60 yards to the San Jose State 40-yard line. The Lobos then moved the football down to the three-yard line, but Ferguson fumbled and Damaja Jones recovered for the Spartans.
With just under four minutes left in the first half, San Jose State took a 13-0 lead after Jones hauled in a 36-yard touchdown pass from Tafralis down the left sideline. SJSU missed the extra point following the touchdown. Jones also had a catch for 19 yards on the scoring drive that put the Spartans inside New Mexico territory.
The Lobos got on the board with 1:11 left in the first half after Kenny Byrd drilled a 40-yard field goal to make it 13-3.
With 4:33 left in the third quarter, the Spartans increased their lead to 20-3 after Jones caught his second touchdown of the game, a 24-yard reception in the back left corner of the end zone.
Early in the fourth quarter with his team driving, Ferguson fumbled for the second time in the game and San Jose State recovered the loose ball on its own 29-yard line to end New Mexico's scoring threat.
The Lobos made it 20-5 late in the contest after San Jose State punter Waylon Prather conceded a safety.
After getting the football after the free kick, New Mexico made it 20-12 with just 15 ticks left after Marcus Smith hauled in a 15-yard touchdown pass from Nelson.
The Lobos went for an onsides kick following Smith's score, but touched the football before it went 10 yards.
Game Notes
The Spartans are now 5-3 in bowl games in their school history...San Jose State leads the all-time series with New Mexico at 10-4-1...The last bowl win for New Mexico was a 28-12 decision against Western Michigan in the 1961 Aviation Bowl, leaving the squad with a 2-7-1 mark in the postseason...The Lobos outgained the Spartans in total yards, 377-280...New Mexico lost four fumbles.
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Chargers signed linebacker Matt Wilhelm to a five-year contract extension Saturday. The deal will keep Wilhelm with the Chargers through the 2011 season. He was due to become an unrestric
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Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Maple Leafs got some bad news on
Saturday when they learned that center Michael Peca will be out indefinitely
with a broken right leg and torn ligaments in his right knee.
Peca suffered the in
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Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The following is a list of the players
placed on the inactive squad for this week's NFL games.
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legendary Dean Smith for most career wins in NCAA Division I history after
notching No. 879 in a 72-60 triumph over Bucknell on Saturday.
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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